This group panel will discuss the tricky world of crisis and conflict forecasting. Clausewitz observed that war “most closely resembles a game of cards” and, furthermore, that friction and the fog of war highlight the different between real war and war on paper. Fundamentally, human interactions, assumptions, and “unknown unknowns” muddy the waters when it comes to prediction. Nevertheless, accurate prediction for early warning or more effective strategy making is still the holy grail of political science. This panel examines different approaches to modelling or simulating conflict, terrorism and other political crises and explores the lessons that must be included when devising scenario forecasts and war games.

Speakers:

Dr David Banks, Lecturer in Wargaming, King’s College London

Dr Gordon Woo, Catastrophist, Risk Management Solutions

Jack Harding, Head of Political Risk, Coriolis Technologies