UK export revenues decline by 6% in the past year: Monthly UK Exporter Monitor, June 2022

Monthly UK Exporter Monitor, June 2022

The June edition of the UK Exporter Monitor by Coriolis Technologies and The Institute of Export & International Trade (IOE&IT) further highlights the struggles British businesses are facing as a result of the pandemic, supply chain crisis, Russia-Ukraine conflict and Brexit.

Total exporter revenues have dropped across the UK by 2% since last month. Wales takes the biggest hit to revenues with a drop of 4%; followed by a 2% fall for England, a 1% decline in Scotland, and a 0.47% decrease in Northern Ireland.

This translates to an overall loss of £85.44m across the UK since last month. In comparison to June 2021, England’s exporter revenues have dropped by £282.46m (6%), Northern Ireland’s by 2.16m (4%), Scotland’s by £44.89m (17%), and Wales by £4.59m (10%), totalling a £334.12m (6%) drop in total UK exporter revenues since this time last year.

Last month, Export Monitor highlighted a looming revenue crisis which is reinforced by this month’s results and the year-on-year comparison. This pattern looks set to continue throughout the summer. Large companies’ revenues have fallen by 2.44% in June. This is an indicator that micro, small and, medium-sized exporters are likely to be in for additional decline in terms of numbers, employment and revenues in the months ahead.

Next month, we predict a decline in exporter employment and revenue across the UK. Whilst we may see a potential uptick in UK exporter counts, without government help any increase will be met swiftly with an equal downturn in numbers.

Coriolis Technologies Chief Executive, Dr Rebecca Harding said:

“The fact that our monthly exporter data is showing no sign of settling, and the overall pattern of exporter numbers, employment and revenues is downward reinforces the picture of uncertainty for UK businesses with international trade profiles. At a broader level, trade has also declined over the last 12 months, meaning a trade-based recovery improving our longer-term economic fortunes is unlikely to materialise.”

 

Institute of Export & International Trade director general, Mr. Marco Forgione said:  

Both the year on year and month on month figures show the number of UK exporters, export revenues and employee numbers continue to fall across all nations and regions. Research shows that companies which export are more profitable, more sustainable, employ more people, and are more innovative. Exporters will be key to reshaping the UK’s economy.

This is a time of uncertainty for UK business. As they face the impact of the cost of living crisis, double digit inflation, the ongoing global logistics issues, and supply chain disruption the government must focus on exporter support. Right now the government’s objective of achieving £1tn in exports looks incredibly challenging.

Download the full Report

Methodology:

  • Method:
    Coriolis Technologies has matched UK exporter data from Customs and Excise sources with Bill of Lading data and large-scale publicly available datasets. UK HMRC data covers the names and addresses of all UK exporters who send products through customs and excise. These names were matched to Bureau van Djik FAME data to establsh turnover and employment levels. To establish the numbers of service sector companies with export revenues, Coriolis took those businesses in the FAME database with international turnover to collect sector and employment as well as turnover information. The sector distribution of exporters in goods and services was then applied to the sample of companies which did not have turnover or employment data to scale the whole dataset to establish counts, turnover and employment for the UK as a whole. Companies were taken from an HMRC sample going back to 2017 and any duplicates with international turnover data from FAME data removed.
  • The forecasts are based on a statistical “General Additive” modelling framework which decomposes each time series (each exporter count group) into a couple of main components:
    • trend
    • seasonality – effect of calendar month or season
    • changepoints – moments where the trend shifts
    • special calendar events
  • These effects are smoothed, added together and extrapolated into the future to create forecasted values for each exporter group separately. The model is optimized to explain as much variability in the time series with as simple model as possible.
  • The estimated forecasting error is within 1.7% of the actual value, back-tested on the actual forecasting performance over the past 2 years for the aggregate forecasts and for the forecasts by size and UK nation

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