The North Korea – United States Summit: why ‘no deal’ on denuclearisation is a win for China

Jack Harding, Head of Political Risk On Thursday last week, Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un met in Hanoi, Vietnam, for their second summit on the denuclearisation of North Korea and the possible lifting of international sanctions. In the morning, hopes on both sides of the negotiating table for striking a deal appeared to be high; Kim Jong Un even fielded his first ever question from a foreign journalist who asked about his mood going into the talks. He replied,…

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Confidence tricks?

Why economic data will show that there is no room for complacency Dr. Rebecca Harding, CEO It seems the world has dodged the first bullets in a full-blown trade war. However predictable this was, the news that the US and China were agreeing Memoranda of Understanding on a range of trade issues has been greeted with an increase in the trade-weighted value of the US dollar and a sigh of relief around the collective board rooms of corporates and financial…

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The global implications of the Venezuela Crisis

Jack Harding, Head of Political Risk   The crisis in Venezuela escalated over the weekend when embattled president Nicolás Maduro closed the country’s borders with Brazil and Colombia resulting in deadly clashes between security forces and protesters. On Thursday last week, Maduro had announced that he would be shutting the border with Brazil and, on Saturday, he allowed a deadline to pass for permitting international aid into Venezuela by instead ordering troops to block the Colombia-Venezuela border crossing at the…

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Business as usual until it’s not usual?

Dr. Rebecca Harding, CEO The last week of February could be a defining week for global trade. In the US, Donald Trump has extended the deadline on the imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods. Meanwhile, in the UK, we could see the UK Parliament taking control of the Brexit process. At the end of last week, the US President, Donald Trump, signalled his willingness to delay the process of imposing tariffs. There is no “magical date”, he tweeted, and, a…

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All at sea? The UK’s strategic misstep in the South China Sea

Jack Harding, Head of Political Risk Philip Hammond’s scheduled trip to China to discuss future trading opportunities was called off last week after the defence secretary, Gavin Williamson, suggested that the UK would send the largest of its warships, the HMS Queen Elizabeth, to the South China Sea. According to Williamson, the aircraft carrier would be equipped with F-35 fighter jets and sent to the region by 2021 to join US naval forces on freedom of navigation operations (“FONOPS”). China…

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