Can the UK recover from Covid-19?

– UK Q1 GDP figures expected to be catastrophic. Expect UK exports to have fallen back by up to one fifth in Q1. – Trade will not be the same after the COVID-19 Pandemic. – UK is now in strategic competition between blocs of interest – Russian, Chinese, American and European- Alongside weakening international governance The Q1 GDP figures this week will be to the economists what the daily Covid 19 death rate statistics have beeen to the medical profession.…

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QuickTake: Decentralised manufacturing post COVID19

– 3D Printing is offering agile manufacturing solutions in the current pandemic – Long term 3D printing may become more ‘mainstream’ leading to more varied and flexible supply chains – Two European countries look set to capitalise The breakdown of supply chains as a result of COVID19 lockdown measures has meant that many businesses are struggling to stay afloat. In cases like medical equipment it means that despite the increased demand there are simply no suppliers. As a result, we…

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Three reasons why trade will never be the same again

Remember January 2020? We thought the trade war had turned into a truce. We had mildly positive expectations for global economic growth based on IMF forecasts. We thought financial markets would continue their bull run with the only risks the same as those evident throughout the period since the Global Financial Crisis: US dollar denominated debt in emerging markets, the strength of the US dollar, the sustained effects of extraordinary monetary policy and the speed at which  trade and growth…

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COVID-19: Policy-Options Effects for and Resulting Scenarios for 2022.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:  Governments around the world are on the horns of the dilemma as to whether to do “whatever it takes” to curb fatalities, or to risk higher fatalities to contain damage to the economy and to state budgets. As we predicted, most are emerging cautiously from their first lockdown as no economy could sustain it until a vaccine is found and administered world-wide. Over the coming 8-20 months (May 2020 – end 2021), governments are faced with the options…

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Mind the gap – why we need to think about small exporters

The World Trade Organisation’s latest outlook for global trade makes grim reading. The Covid-19 pandemic could cause a drop in world trade of bewteen 13% and 32% in 2020. The trade community has been watching inventory stock plummet since February and while at the outset of the crisis this was simply a supply chain disruption, the complete global lockdown of our daily lives has caused a drop in global demand for goods and services like no other in recent memory. Even…

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