Exporter counts and revenues have gone up by 2.33% and 2.99% respectively across all UK regions in March 2022 compared to February 2022. However, this is roughly half the growth rate we predicted in our last forecast reflecting the downside risks and in no sense goes far enough to correct the down
Despite a mild uptick in counts and revenues of exporters, employment has fallen back by nearly 8% since February to the lowest it has been since January 2021. This indicates a risk aversion amongst exporters: faced with challenges in their supply chains, rising costs and the evident challenges of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, the uncertainties ahead are driving UK exporters to take measures to increase their efficiency.
As noted in February’s Exporter Monitor, it is large businesses that are particularly impacted in terms of the drop in employment, with 10.77% fewer employees compared to March 2021, suggesting that these are the ones that would be most exposed to shifts in the sanction’s regime and longer-term economic disruption.
The results corroborate the longer-term picture given by the Office of Budget Responsibility last month suggesting that exports had declines by 15% over the past year. The exporter monitor has been suggesting a downward trend in counts, revenues and employment for some 12 months now and, despite a small pick up recently, the UK is still below the levels it was this time last year.
