Coriolis 2020 Political Risk Report Q1

In the current global environment, the role of trade has transformed from that of a benign tool of economic growth and development to a means for states to coerce, build strategic potential, and gain influence.

At Coriolis Technologies, we have observed the growing role of trade in so-called grey-zone conflict. Using our trade-based model, our inaugural 16 page Political Risk Outlook, authored by Jack Harding, head of political risk, presents a picture of the top five risks in 2020. Each has substantial potential to escalate into broader conflict, and each illustrates how important trade data is for understanding political risk.

Key Findings

  • Turkey is in focus as a result of the potential for a serious direct confrontation with Syrian regime forces

  • Serious escalation in conflict between jihadist and nationalist groups in the Sahel is set to continue throughout 2020.

  • Yemen: the data show unprecedented increases in arms imports into Saudi Arabia.

  • Evidence suggests increased and statistically significant Russian exports of military goods, aerospace and propulsion and commodities not elsewhere specified into Serbia over the last 18 months.

  • The global struggle for power between Russia, China and the US will continue to be played out in 2020 in Venezuela.